A heat dome has killed at least 11 people across northern Europe and left others fighting for their lives, as record temperatures grip the continent. Cyprus, however, will not be affected by the phenomenon, meteorologist Kleanthis Nikolaidis told Phileleftheros — though he warned of growing concerns about El Niño and the risk of prolonged drought.
The heat dome, Nikolaidis explained, takes its name from its characteristics. “It is called thermal because the air temperature is high. And dome, because if you look at the structure of the atmosphere over central Europe from a distance, you notice that it is thicker than in other parts of the planet — that a dome forms, a high-pressure system,” he said.
The phenomenon stems from the Azores anticyclone — a permanent high-pressure system in the North Atlantic — which has expanded over recent days from the Azores across the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal, Spain and France, and is now moving northward. “The effect is that this system presses down on the layers of the atmosphere where humans live — the near-surface layers — causing temperatures to rise, and in some cases to reach extreme highs,” Nikolaidis said.
The system had already affected Portugal and Spain, was now bearing down on France and Germany, and was moving gradually toward England and the Scandinavian countries, he said. Very high temperatures combined with the stillness typical of high-pressure systems and the humidity present across much of Europe due to lakes and rivers were creating heatwave conditions, he added. Orange warnings had been issued across several areas. In France, temperatures of between 35 and 40 degrees Celsius were recorded.
Cyprus was not in the path of the heat dome. “In Cyprus, this heat dome will not arrive and will not affect us. Gradually the high-pressure system will weaken. It is already moving north-eastward, toward areas that are very far away,” Nikolaidis said. He added that rain was expected in France within the coming days.
Cyprus is currently under the influence of a seasonal low-pressure system that is bringing localised rain and thunderstorms in the afternoons, he said, though temperatures are expected to rise over the weekend.
El Niño, the polar vortex and drought fears
Nikolaidis expressed concern about the possible arrival of El Niño, the position of the polar jet stream, and the prolonged drought they could bring to Cyprus.
Last winter was exceptionally wet, he noted. Dam capacity rose from 9.3% to 43.8% — yet Cyprus’s water problem remains unsolved. That wet winter was driven by the La Niña phenomenon, which is associated with lower-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, producing cooler, wetter conditions.
That is now changing. “There are signs that we are moving away from La Niña toward the neutral phase — normal water temperatures — in anticipation of a strong El Niño phenomenon,” he said. El Niño raises equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures by as much as two to three degrees Celsius above normal, with global climate consequences — causing droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others.
Cyprus would not escape El Niño’s effects, but its small size made precise predictions impossible, Nikolaidis said. What mattered more for Cyprus was the position of the polar jet stream. “If it stays further north this year and does not dip far enough south to reach our island, then we will have a very dry winter,” he said.
Empirical observation, he added, showed that sequences of dry years had increased, while isolated wet years were becoming rarer.
“What always worries me is Cyprus’s water problem. It worries me greatly — how the state will manage the existing water in the dams, given that a new desalination plant will not be built, and given that water is already not being supplied to meet the needs of the agricultural sector,” he said.
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