Water shortage risk grows as desalination delays and rising consumption undermine 2027 target

Cyprus faces a medium-term water shortage risk after court proceedings and cost concerns removed two desalination projects from the government’s water planning, while consumption overshot targets in the first five months of the year, casting doubt over the government’s goal of meeting all water supply needs through desalination by 2027.

Dam levels and consumption

Despite some improvement from rainfall between January and June 2026, total dam reserves stood at 123.2 million cubic metres (MCM), representing 42.4% capacity. The Southern Conveyor System (SNWSS) dams recorded just 38.6% capacity and the Paphos dams 45.5%. The safety threshold for large water systems is set at 35%. Any further reduction in reserves would substantially increase the risk of water shortage in 2027 and 2028, according to the planning data.

A Council of Ministers decision in January 2026 called for a 10% across-the-board reduction in water consumption. The first five months of the year did not meet that target. SNWSS water consumption fell by just 0.6%, with Limassol recording an increase of 4.5%. Paphos recorded a surge of 15.3%.

Under pressure from farming organisations and due to extended rainfall through May, the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment submitted a revised proposal under an alternative allocation scenario, approving 121.7 MCM for water supply and 41.2 MCM for irrigation.

Desalination delays and setbacks

Of the 121.7 MCM allocated for water supply, 92.8 MCM is projected to come from desalination. However, three projects face significant uncertainty.

The Mazotos mobile unit, with a capacity of 40,000 cubic metres per day and originally expected to come online in January 2027, has been removed entirely from projections. A legal challenge by the Mazotos community council has created an unknown implementation horizon and, according to the planning document, a real risk of project cancellation.

The Germasogeia floating unit, with a capacity of 20,000 cubic metres per day, was also removed from the allocation scenario after the Ministry of Finance requested a revaluation of its construction on cost grounds.

The existing Dekeleia desalination unit contract expires on May 20, 2027. The Water Development Department (WDD) is in negotiations to extend it, but quantities for 2027 and 2028 are not yet secured, adding further uncertainty.

Water balance projections

Projections for the SNWSS show water supply needs rising from 102.2 MCM in 2026 to 107.3 MCM in 2027 and 112.6 MCM in 2028. End-of-year dam reserves are projected to fall from 49.4 MCM in 2026 to 38.8 MCM in 2027 and 24.9 MCM in 2028, leaving capacity at 13%.

In Paphos, supply needs are projected to rise from 18.9 MCM in 2026 to 19.8 MCM in 2027 and 20.8 MCM in 2028. End-of-year dam reserves are projected to fall from 24.1 MCM in 2026 to 18.7 MCM in 2027 and 9.6 MCM in 2028, also leaving capacity at 13%. To allow additional water allocation to Paphos, the Paphos DLGO has committed to limiting demand growth to between 5% and 8% annually, against the current rate of 15%.

Units currently operating

Four large desalination units are in operation: Larnaca (60,000 m³/day, operational since 2015), Vasiliko (60,000 m³/day, since 2013), Episkopi (40,000 m³/day, since 2012) and Dekeleia (60,000 m³/day, since 2007), the last of which is under contract extension negotiations. The Paphos unit operates at 15,000 m³/day, with an additional 5,000 m³/day available until September 2027 to offset losses caused by a fire in December 2024.

Three mobile units entered full operation in the past two years: Moni (15,000 m³/day, operating until December 31, 2029), Kissonerga (12,000 m³/day, since December 2025) and Limassol Port (10,000 m³/day, since April 27, 2026). The Kouklia unit, destroyed by fire, was also restored and brought back online. A fourth mobile unit at Garyllis entered trial operation on June 10.

Units in the pipeline

Three further mobile units are expected: Garyllis (10,000 m³/day, expected within June 2026), Episkopi (10,000 m³/day, expected September 2026, with discussions under way to expand capacity by a further 5,000 m³/day) and Vasiliko (10,000 m³/day, expected October 2026, with EAC approval for capacity increase to 20,000 m³/day).

Four new permanent desalination units are planned, targeting operation by 2029 and designed to run on renewable energy to cover needs through to 2050: East Limassol (60,000 m³/day), Ayia Napa–Ayia Thekla (30,000 m³/day), Polis Chrysochous (10,000 m³/day) and a new Dekeleia unit (80,000 m³/day), the last of which is planned to replace the existing Dekeleia unit once its contract expires.