Ukraine appears to be gaining the upper hand in its war with Russia, as an analysis cited by Axios indicates that Kyiv now possesses the capability to strike almost any target within Russian territory by utilizing advanced drones and long-range missiles. Targets such as energy facilities, weapons manufacturing plants, and military bases are reportedly falling under attack with increasing frequency, leaving fewer areas of Russia considered safe.
Russia now faces fuel shortages due to repetitive strikes on refineries. At least one of these attacks caused scenes of panic, with Moscow residents seeking shelter following explosions, while the phenomenon of “black rain” was also reported.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Russia was forced to relocate the largest part of its air defence to protect critical areas, such as central Moscow and a presidential residence, leaving other targets more exposed. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently acknowledged that there are “problems” and “certain shortages” related to the strikes, though he attempted to downplay their significance.
At the same time, Russian forces continue fierce strikes inside Ukraine. Moscow launched new attacks against Kyiv overnight, resulting in the deaths of at least 30 people, while Russian troops persist in their attempts to advance along the front line in Donetsk despite heavy casualties.
Zelensky has repeatedly referred to these operations as “long-range sanctions”—an ironic term for Ukrainian attacks against Russian targets hundreds of kilometres away from the border. Ukraine’s tools and tactics have become far more sophisticated over the years of the war. Videos circulating on social media this week showed Flamingo missiles, manufactured by Fire Point, hitting their targets, including the Titan-Barrikady plant where Russian artillery systems are produced.
Last summer, images from the striking “Spiderweb” operation showed small drones, which had been covertly moved across the border and equipped with explosives, targeting parked and unprotected warplanes. This marks a major shift compared to the initial phase of the war. Ukraine now relies heavily on domestically produced drones and modified missiles, launching attacks even in areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg that lie far from the border.
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Kyiv has spectacularly carried the war into Russian territory in 2026, orchestrating a series of short, medium, and long-range strikes aimed at disrupting and destroying the Russian supply chain and logistics. As the same report notes, this represents a case of classic air interdiction, except it is carried out with drones and missiles rather than aircraft.
However, this evolution required time. One reason was the restrictions imposed by Western countries regarding which weapons Ukraine could use, where, and in what manner. At the same time, not all Ukrainian attacks are successful, as Russian interception and electronic warfare systems continue to operate effectively in several instances.
The next critical juncture is a 40-day operation that Zelensky states Ukraine has launched, aiming to force Russia back to the negotiating table. For the time being, however, there remain very few signs of meaningful diplomatic mobility.