A powerful El Nino phenomenon is expected to develop this summer and strengthen by autumn, threatening to drive global temperatures higher and trigger prolonged droughts. Meteorology Department Director Filippos Tymvios told Phileleftheros that the weather pattern will persist for months, impacting Cyprus and the wider Eastern Mediterranean region already under pressure from the climate crisis.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon occurring in the tropical Pacific Ocean that alters weather conditions across much of the globe. Under normal conditions, winds push warm surface waters westward toward Indonesia and Australia. During an El Nino event, these winds weaken, allowing warm waters to spread into the central and eastern Pacific, which heats more areas and alters ocean currents.
The rise in sea surface temperatures subsequently drives up atmospheric temperatures. Tymvios highlighted that the upcoming episode is projected to be highly intense. While every El Nino varies in strength, duration, and regional warming patterns, the current event will manifest on an already warmer planet, meaning human-induced climate change could amplify its overall impacts.
Highly intense episodes have occurred in the past, notably in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016, leading to significant global disruptions in temperature, rainfall, droughts, and flooding. The phenomenon itself is natural and not caused by climate change, but its occurrence against a pre-heated global backdrop acts as an additional warming catalyst.
The pattern recurs irregularly, typically every two to seven years, alternating with La Nina—which cools ocean waters—and neutral phases. While determining changes in overall frequency remains difficult, studies indicate that extreme El Nino and La Nina episodes could double in frequency by the end of the century, shifting from once every 20 years to once every 10 years.
The current El Nino is expected to emerge during the summer of 2026, intensify through autumn, and influence the 2026–2027 winter before likely subsiding next spring or early summer.
The impact on Cyprus will be indirect, filtering through global atmospheric circulation. Any noticeable effects are most likely to appear between autumn and winter, coinciding with the local rainy season. Meteorologists are particularly concerned with the broader outlook, as a powerful El Nino can further elevate global baseline temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean, a region where sea surface temperatures have already been notably high in recent years.
Tymvios emphasised that structural measures can protect citizens from extreme conditions, viewing protection as a chain that links scientific monitoring and early warnings with state operational readiness and public behavior.
For Cyprus, the primary adaptation priorities include heatwave protection, reducing wildfire risks, improving flood preparations, and managing water resources responsibly. Risks cannot be entirely eliminated, but the consequences can be significantly reduced by preparing ahead of time rather than reacting during an event.