Seven weeks of war with Iran have failed to topple Tehran’s rulers or secure all of President Donald Trump’s stated objectives — but they have laid bare what adversaries and allies alike now see as his central vulnerability: the tolerance of the American public for economic pain.
Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran on 28 February, citing imminent security threats and Tehran’s nuclear programme. But with US gasoline prices elevated, inflation rising and his approval ratings falling, he is now racing to secure a diplomatic settlement before the domestic fallout deepens.
Iran has taken a severe military beating, but demonstrated an ability to inflict economic costs that Washington underestimated — triggering what analysts describe as the worst global energy shock on record by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes. The International Monetary Fund has warned of recession risk.
“Trump is feeling the economic pinch, which is his Achilles heel in this war of choice,” said Brett Bruen, a former Obama administration foreign policy adviser and head of the Global Situation Room consultancy.
Trump’s abrupt pivot on 8 April from airstrikes to diplomacy followed pressure from financial markets and parts of his MAGA base. US farmers — a core Trump constituency — have been hit by disrupted fertiliser shipments, while higher jet fuel costs have pushed up airfares. Republicans are also defending narrow Congressional majorities ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Iran’s partial reopening of the strait on Friday sent oil prices sharply lower and lifted financial markets, which Trump frequently cites as a measure of his success. He was quick to declare the waterway safe and tout a deal as imminent and largely on his terms. Iranian sources told Reuters, however, that significant gaps remained.
The two sides are also far apart on Tehran’s nuclear programme. At last weekend’s talks in Islamabad — the highest-level US-Iran negotiations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution — Washington proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity; Tehran countered with three to five years. Trump said the emerging deal calls for Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile to be transferred to the United States; Iran denied agreeing to any transfer outside its territory.
US officials have said privately that Trump had expected the conflict to be a limited operation akin to January’s raid in Venezuela or June’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Instead, Iran struck back by targeting Gulf energy infrastructure and choking the strait — a miscalculation with far-reaching consequences.
Analysts say the war has sent a sobering signal to US allies. European governments, which were not consulted before the attack and are bearing a heavy share of the economic burden, are expected to grow more sceptical of Washington’s reliability on Ukraine. Asian allies — Japan, South Korea and Taiwan — may recalibrate their security assumptions accordingly.
“The alarm bell ringing for allies right now is how the war has highlighted that the administration can act erratically, without much regard for consequences,” said Gregory Poling, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Gulf Arab states want a swift end to the conflict but are wary of a deal struck without security guarantees for the region. “An end to this conflict should not also create continuous instability in the region,” said Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates.
Most MAGA supporters have held firm behind Trump, but doubts are growing over whether he can recover lost ground with independent voters before the midterms. “He’s aware that a significant portion of the country outside his MAGA base, and even some within it, are vehemently opposed to what he’s done,” said Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona-based political strategist. “And I think the price is going to come due.”
(Reuters)
Read more: