A new international study co-authored by researchers at the Cyprus Institute has found that oceans influence cloud formation far more than scientists had previously understood.
The discovery is expected to lead to more accurate climate predictions.
The findings help resolve a long-standing uncertainty in climate science: why atmospheric observations over remote oceans have often differed from climate model predictions.
The study, published in the scientific journal Nature, was carried out at the CERN CLOUD experiment, a facility for studying how atmospheric particles and clouds form. Scientists recreated atmospheric conditions found over remote oceans and investigated how tiny particles form and grow into the seeds that enable cloud formation.
The process begins with gases released by phytoplankton, microscopic marine organisms. These gases undergo chemical reactions in the atmosphere and are transformed into compounds that contribute to the formation of new particles.
Central to the findings is the role of methanesulfonic acid (MSA), a compound produced from natural marine emissions. For decades, sulfuric acid was considered the primary driver of new particle formation in the atmosphere. The new study found that MSA plays a similarly important role over remote oceans and is particularly effective at low temperatures. When MSA and sulfuric acid act together, they can produce substantially more particles than either compound alone.
Dr Rima Baalbaki, researcher at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the Cyprus Institute and first author of the study, said understanding this mechanism allows scientists to gain a clearer picture of how the Earth’s climate system functions, more accurately project future climate conditions, and “more reliably assess the role of human activities in climate change.”
Dr Theodoros Christoudias, one of the study’s authors, noted that Cyprus is located in a region warming at twice the global average rate and already experiencing the severe effects of climate change. The discovery, he said, “helps us better understand climate systems and better prepare for the impacts of climate change.”
The findings are described as being particularly significant for the Eastern Mediterranean, one of the world’s most acutely affected climate change hotspots, where improved understanding of atmospheric processes directly strengthens the ability to model and anticipate future climate conditions.
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