Donald Trump and Tehran say they are closer than ever to a preliminary agreement to end the war, with negotiations currently hinging on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear programme, and lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.
In a live television interview on Saturday night, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the agreement is now in its final stages. He stated that its core details have already been approved by Iran’s top political and institutional leadership, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the National Security Council.
According to Araghchi, the memorandum of understanding will lead to an end to the conflict across all fronts, including Lebanon. The Iranian Foreign Minister also claimed that for the first time in 47 years, Iran and the United States will state in writing that they mutually respect each other’s sovereignty and political system.
Furthermore, he pointed out that Israel will have to withdraw from territories it still occupies in Lebanon and halt its attacks as part of the comprehensive agreement to end the war. Tehran has already conveyed this position to Washington, Araghchi said, estimating that compliance with commitments from all sides could pave the way for a more permanent peace in the region.
According to the New York Times, the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement providing for the cessation of armed conflict, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran.
The same sources state that Iran will reaffirm its commitment not to develop or acquire a nuclear weapon. However, the future of its nuclear programme is not resolved by the agreement and will be the subject of a new round of negotiations at a later date.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told state media that Tehran has reached a common understanding with the US on “most issues” and is in the final stage of internal consultations regarding the text of the agreement. “As we speak, meetings are underway between the relevant Iranian bodies,” he said.
Conflicting interpretations of the deal
Both Washington and Tehran are attempting to present the agreement as a success that serves their own strategic goals.
While Araghchi spoke of a historic rapprochement, US Vice President JD Vance attempted to soothe concerns expressed within Republican ranks regarding potential concessions offered by the agreement to Iran.
“The agreement has been structured in a way that ensures the concerns of the United States and its allies are prioritised and that, provided the Islamic Republic of Iran meets its obligations, economic benefits will flow both into Iran itself and across the wider region,” Vance wrote on social media.
An even more optimistic tone was struck by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has taken on a mediating role in the peace efforts. In a social media post, he claimed that “the final, agreed text of the peace agreement has been reached.”
Israel’s role and Tel Aviv’s concerns
Although Israel is not directly participating in the talks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced on Friday that the Israeli leader held a telephone conversation with Trump. According to the announcement, the US President assured Netanyahu that restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme would form an integral part of any final agreement with Tehran.
Israeli officials continue to express reservations, believing that Iran may avoid making substantial concessions on its nuclear programme during the next cycle of talks.
What the draft agreement provides
According to sources briefed on the content of the talks, the agreement takes the form of a “memorandum of understanding”.
The draft provides for the launch of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, which will last for a maximum of 60 days. During this period, hostilities will cease on all fronts, including Lebanon. It remains unclear what will happen after the 60 days expire if a comprehensive agreement is not reached.
Iran will allow the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US will end its naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. During the negotiations, Iran and other regional states will discuss the future management status of the Strait of Hormuz.
If the text is finalised, the signing of the agreement is expected to take place in the coming days, potentially in Geneva, where talks between the two sides were held last February before the outbreak of the war.
Vice President JD Vance is expected to head the US delegation. Trump stated on Friday that he will send him to sign the agreement once it is completed.
On the Iranian side, the delegation is expected to be led by General Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament and Tehran’s chief negotiator.
The unresolved issues
Despite significant progress, several critical issues remain outside the scope of the current agreement.
For instance, there is still no solution regarding Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, nor for the overall future of its nuclear programme. These issues are being transferred to the next round of negotiations.
Two Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the next phase will include discussions on lifting US sanctions, including those targeting Iranian oil exports and international banking transactions, in exchange for additional concessions from Tehran on the nuclear issue.
On Friday, Iran requested the dilution of its 60% enriched uranium stockpiles on Iranian soil, while Washington demands their destruction under the memorandum of understanding currently being discussed.
“Our position has always been that the only way to manage the stockpiles of enriched materials is their dilution in Iran,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television.
Diluting the uranium to less than 5%, which is far from the 90% required to manufacture a nuclear bomb, would significantly push back the threat of enrichment for military purposes.