Fuel demand in Cyprus rose by more than 30% on Monday, March 2, as motorists and households increased purchases amid concerns over the regional conflict, according to the president of the Cyprus fuel station owners’ association.
Savvas Prokopiou told philenews that the surge in demand included not only vehicle refuelling but also purchases of heating oil.
He said fuel retailers expect prices in upcoming shipments to rise gradually by around six to seven cents per litre, although the outcome will depend on how the conflict involving the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other develops.
Prokopiou noted that the sharp increase recorded on Monday did not continue on Tuesday, when demand showed signs of easing, adding that the overall trend would become clearer by the end of the day.
Demand for heating oil was considered unusual for the time of year, as March typically marks the decline of winter consumption with warmer temperatures approaching.
Under normal circumstances, he said, such a surge would not be expected.
Psychological impact of conflict
Prokopiou said the increase in demand is not driven solely by economic factors but also by the psychological impact often observed during periods of conflict.
He noted that both demand and fuel price increases were significantly higher when the war between Russia and Ukraine began, compared with the current situation.
According to his assessment, demand is likely to decline in the coming days.
Price increases expected in the coming shipments
Prokopiou said one petroleum company has already raised prices by about 1.5 cents per litre from Tuesday, although the change has not yet appeared at fuel stations.
Based on current pricing practices, such adjustments are typically reflected at stations after about two days. Other fuel companies are also expected to follow with price increases.
He noted that global oil prices had already been rising for about 60 days before the outbreak of the conflict.
Following the escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran last Saturday, the price of oil per barrel increased by about 15%.
However, Prokopiou said the increase in retail fuel prices will be lower because other factors affecting the final price, including taxes, remain fixed.
Based on current conditions and experience, he estimated that fuel prices could rise by about six to seven cents per litre in the next two or three shipments.
“All this depends on how the war develops,” he said, adding that if oil prices remain below $90 per barrel, price increases are unlikely to exceed those estimates.