Political upheaval is reshaping the electoral map and will inevitably alter the line-up of the next House of Representatives. Beyond the fight for percentages and seats in each district, parties now face bruising internal contests over who secures the limited parliamentary spots. Traditional parties, under pressure in the polls, are feeling the strain most sharply. Several leaderships have struggled — and in some cases are still struggling — to finalise their candidate lists.
Some sitting MPs seeking re-election are likely to lose their seats if their parties’ vote share drops and seats are cut as a result. Outside the four largest parties — Democratic Rally (DISY), Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL), Democratic Party (DIKO) and National Popular Front (ELAM) — no parliamentary return is guaranteed for the remaining parties currently represented. It also remains unclear how new parties such as ALMA and Direct Democracy will shape the composition of the House. The number of parties in the new parliament is uncertain, as is the impact of transferring one seat from Nicosia to Paphos.
Participation in the third allocation of seats will prove decisive. Only parties securing at least 7.2 per cent nationwide qualify for that stage. In 2021, DIKO won two of its nine seats in this phase — one in Nicosia and one in Famagusta. Four seats were available in total. DISY secured one in Kyrenia and AKEL one in Nicosia.
In recent years, only DISY, AKEL and DIKO have surpassed the 7.2 per cent threshold to enter the third allocation. In 2021, those three parties divided the four remaining seats. How many will share them in May 2026? And could a party reach the electoral quota yet still fail to secure a seat?
The May elections introduce a new variable. Nicosia’s seats fall from 20 to 19, while Paphos gains one, rising from four to five. Fewer seats in Nicosia mean a higher electoral quota there; more seats in Paphos lower the quota. In practical terms, candidates in Nicosia will need more votes per seat, while fewer votes will suffice in Paphos. Seat numbers elsewhere remain unchanged: Limassol 12, Famagusta 11, Larnaca 6 and Kyrenia 3.
In Nicosia, DISY currently holds five seats, AKEL six, DIKO three, ELAM one, EDEK one, DIPA two and the Greens two. DISY sees three of its five MPs step aside — Averof Neophytou and Nikos Tornaritis due to term limits and Harris Georgiades by choice. Only Dimitris Demetriou and Savia Orfanidou seek re-election and are considered favourites. The party’s key challenge is retaining all five seats.
AKEL is unlikely to keep all six. Former general secretary Andros Kyprianou is not standing again, and Irene Charalambidou has reached her term limit. Party leader Stefanos Stefanou seeks re-election and, as head of the list, does not require preference votes. Giorgos Loukaides and Aristos Damianou received exemptions from term limits, while Christos Christofides is also contesting. These four are viewed as strong contenders.
DIKO has yet to announce its Nicosia candidates amid intense internal competition. All three current MPs — party leader Nikolas Papadopoulos, deputy leader Christiana Erotokritou and Chrysis Pantelides — are running again. Failure to enter the third allocation could reduce the party to two seats in the district.
Smaller parties face uncertainty. EDEK’s deputy leader Morfakis Solomou is seen as a favourite. From DIPA, Alekos Tryfonides and vice-president Marinos Cleanthous are contesting. Green MP Charalambos Theopemptou is not seeking re-election, while Alexandra Attalides stands with Volt. ELAM’s Christos Christou defends his seat amid internal competition from Marios Pelekanos and Andreas Papacharalambous. ALMA is expected to field Odysseas Michaelides, Dimitris Papadakis and possibly Irene Charalambidou. Volt’s ticket includes leader Andromachi Sofocleous, Alexandra Attalides and Makarios Drousiotis.
In Limassol, DISY and AKEL each hold three seats, DIKO two, ELAM one, EDEK one, DIPA one and the Greens one. DISY’s deputy leader Efthymios Diplaros is not running due to term limits, while Fotini Tsiridou is seeking re-election. AKEL loses two popular MPs to term limits, Costas Costa and Andros Kafkalias, leaving Marina Nicolaou as a leading candidate. DIKO’s Pavlos Mylonas is not standing, while parliamentary spokesman Panicos Leonidou is. ELAM aims to expand its presence, with Evgenios Hamboullas and Polis Anogyriatis contesting, as Andreas Themistocleous runs with his newly founded party.
Famagusta’s 11 seats are currently split between DISY (4), AKEL (3), DIKO (2), ELAM (1) and DIPA (1). DISY loses two MPs to retirement or term limits. AKEL and DIKO see all their current MPs seek re-election. DIPA’s seat remains uncertain following Michalis Yiakoumi’s departure to DIKO.
In Larnaca, DISY holds two seats, AKEL one, DIKO one, ELAM one and EDEK one. DISY leader Annita Demetriou is assured re-election as head of the list. ELAM hopes to gain a second seat. EDEK’s position appears fragile.
Paphos gains a fifth seat. Historically, DISY, AKEL, DIKO and EDEK each held one. The additional seat raises questions over whether ELAM or another party could break through. Charalambos Pazaros (DISY), Valentinos Fakontis (AKEL) and Chrysanthos Savvides (DIKO) are standing again, while EDEK’s Ilias Myrianthous is not due to term limits.
Kyrenia, with three seats and the lowest electoral quota, sees no party secure a seat in the first allocation. DISY holds two and AKEL one. Rita Superman of DISY is the only incumbent seeking re-election.
Seat allocation begins with the calculation of the electoral quota in each district by dividing valid votes by available seats. Parties secure seats in proportion to how many times they meet that quota. In 2021, 122,347 valid votes in Nicosia produced a quota of 6,117 votes. A candidate reaching the quota individually can also win a seat.
In the second allocation, parties must secure 3.6 per cent nationwide to participate in the first phase and 7.2 per cent for the final phase, known as the third allocation. Coalitions of two parties require 10 per cent; coalitions of more than two require 20 per cent. Unused votes and unallocated seats are pooled nationally, and a new quota is calculated. Remaining seats are then distributed one by one to parties with the highest unused vote totals.
In 2021, 29 of 56 seats were distributed in the first allocation, leaving 27. The second allocation distributed 23 seats with a quota of 4,543 votes. The final four seats went to the parties with the highest unused remainders: DIKO secured two, DISY one and AKEL one.
The May vote will test whether that pattern holds — or whether the volatility now gripping the political scene will redraw the parliamentary map once again.