The arrest and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, following a large-scale US operation in Caracas, signals a volatile new era for the nation. Holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela’s political fate now dictates whether its energy wealth will finally re-enter international markets.
An Energy Giant with Stalled Production
Venezuela sits on approximately 303 billion barrels of proven crude—nearly 17% of the global total. Despite this, production stagnates at roughly 1 to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), representing less than 1% of world supply.
This collapse marks a dramatic decline:
1970s: Production peaked at 3.5 million bpd.
Pre-Maduro era: Output regularly exceeded 2 million bpd.
Current status: Years of mismanagement, lack of investment, and international sanctions have left state oil firm PDVSA in a state of decay.
The Strategic Value of Heavy Crude
Most of these reserves are located in the Orinoco Belt and consist of heavy, acidic crude. While difficult to extract and process, this variety is essential for producing diesel, asphalt, and heavy industrial fuels.
For the United States, Venezuelan oil is uniquely valuable. Many US refineries are specifically configured to process heavy blends more efficiently than the light shale oil produced domestically. This makes Venezuela a permanent fixture on Washington’s strategic energy map.
Trump’s Blueprint for the Energy Sector
In a Fox News interview, President Donald Trump detailed the capture of Maduro and revealed plans for “strong involvement” in Venezuela’s oil industry. Trump claimed he had urged Maduro to surrender a week prior, eventually launching a strike he described as “much more targeted and powerful” than initially planned.
Washington now asserts a lead role in reshaping Venezuelan energy. Trump’s vision involves American oil majors investing billions to rebuild “rotted” infrastructure, with the US potentially being reimbursed through future oil revenues.
Power Vacuum and Risk of Instability
The removal of Maduro does not guarantee stability. While the US recognises exiled Edmundo González as the legitimate president—supported by Nobel laureate María Corina Machado—the future remains uncertain. The military’s loyalty, the cohesion of the state apparatus, and the public’s reaction remain critical variables.
Impact on Global Oil Prices
Global markets have remained relatively stable despite the tension. Analysts note the world is currently in an oversupply environment, with OPEC increasing production. UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo suggests the immediate market impact is “not yet clearly visible.” He notes that while geopolitical risks may cause minor price fluctuations, the loss of Venezuela’s current exports—which were already under pressure from blockades—is unlikely to disrupt global supply significantly.
The Road Ahead
Even with a smooth political transition and lifted sanctions, production recovery will take years and massive capital. Lessons from Libya and Iraq demonstrate that regime change rarely leads to immediate energy stability. For Venezuela, its oil remains both a lifeline for economic rebirth and a potential catalyst for further internal conflict.
(information from naftemporiki.gr)