Turks vote on May 14 in elections seen as among the most consequential in Turkey’s modern history, with President Tayyip Erdogan facing the biggest political challenge of his two-decade rule.
Surveys carried out since devastating earthquakes on Feb. 6 show Erdogan’s main challenger for the presidency, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, ahead of him in the first round of voting. If no candidate secures more than half the votes in the first round, a May 28 runoff will be held between the two leading candidates.
Most polls for the parliamentary elections show the main opposition alliance ahead of the People’s Alliance, which includes Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party, the nationalist MHP, the right-wing Great Unity Party and the New Welfare Party.
The opposition Nation Alliance includes Kilicdaroglu’s main opposition CHP, the centre-right IYI Party, the Islamist Felicity Party, the Democrat Party and two parties founded by former Erdogan allies, the Deva and Future parties.
Parliament’s third-largest party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), will run for parliament under the Green Left Party banner to circumvent its potential closure. It has formed the Labour and Freedom Alliance with several other left-wing parties.
With votes already being cast at polling stations outside of the country, alliances or parties that run alone must secure at least 7% of the total votes cast to win seats in parliament.
Below are tables of opinion polls for both races:
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
| Date | Source | Tayyip Erdogan | Kemal Kilicdaroglu | Muharrem Ince | Sinan Ogan | Undecided |
| March 7 | ORC | 43.2% | 56.8% | – | – | – |
| March 9 | Alf | 44.9% | 55.1% | – | – | – |
| March 10 | Piar | 42.9% | 57.1% | – | – | – |
| March 11 | Aksoy | 44.4% | 55.6% | – | – | – |
| March 17 | ORC | 42.3% | 53.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | – |
| March 22 | MAK | 42.4% | 46.5% | – | – | 7.7% |
| March 24 | Metropoll | 42% | 44.6% | – | – | 5.1% |
| April 6 | Yoneylem | 39.2% | 43.8% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| April 8 | Metropoll | 41.1% | 42.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 4.4% |
| April 12 | ORC | 41.5% | 48.9% | 7.2% | 2.4% | – |
| April 12 | Gezici | 43.2% | 53.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | – |
| April 15 | Alf | 43.9% | 47.4% | 6.5% | 2.2% | – |
| April 17 | MAK | 43.7% | 47.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 4.0% |
| April 18 | Aksoy | 38.4% | 47.9% | 9.0% | 4.8% | – |
| April 21 | Yoneylem | 39.0% | 44.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 6.5% |
| April 24 | ORC | 42.4% | 49.3% | 6.1% | 2.2% | – |
| April 29 | Piar | 47.1% | 49.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | – |
| May 1 | Aksoy | 41.9% | 47.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | – |
| May 2 | Gezici | 44.6% | 48.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | – |
| May 3 | ORC | 44.6% | 48.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | – |
| May 4 | Yoneylem | 42.5% | 48.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | – |
| May 7 | MAK | 45.4% | 50.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | – |
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS*
| Date | Source | People’s Alliance
(Government bloc) |
Nation Alliance (Main opposition) | Labor and Freedom Alliance (Pro-Kurdish left bloc) | Undecided |
| March | Metropoll | 43.5% | 37.6% | 13.4% | – |
| March 9 | Alf | 39.4% | 43.5% | 11.3% | – |
| March 10 | Piar | 37.9% | 46.4% | 11.6% | – |
| March 11 | Aksoy | 38.2% | 44.1% | 11.4% | – |
| March 17 | ORC | 37.2% | 44.5% | 10.8% | – |
| March 22 | Yoneylem | 37.5% | 32.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
| March 22 | MAK | 42.0% | 45.0% | – | 4.0% |
| April 12 | ORC | 39.4% | 42.8% | 10.8% | – |
| April 14 | Alf | 39.7% | 43.4% | 10.1% | – |
| April 15 | Metropoll | 40.1% | 31.7% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
| April 17 | MAK | 44.0% | 40.0% | 10.3% | 4.0% |
| April 18 | Aksoy | 38.6% | 32.0% | 13.0% | – |
| April 19 | Yoneylem | 37.2% | 33.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% |
| April 24 | ORC | 40.3% | 43.7% | 10.7% | – |
| May 1 | Aksoy | 41.5% | 41.1% | 11.5% | – |
| May 3 | ORC | 41.8% | 43.5% | 11.6% | – |
| May 7 | MAK | 43.7% | 41.4% | 10.5% | 3.2% |
*Alliances’ vote shares may be a sum of member parties, or aggregate numbers depending on the pollster.
(Reuters)