The Cypriot political landscape is entering a period of extreme fluidity. As the parliamentary elections approach, the focus is already shifting toward a complex “puzzle” of alliances that will likely define the first round of the 2028 Presidential Elections.
The Centre-Right Realignment
President Nikos Christodoulides recently moved to define his government’s ideological identity, making a clear overture to the centre-right audience. However, the ground is shifting beneath him:
- DIKO’s Stance: Party leader Nicolas Papadopoulos has intensified his criticism of the government, sparking speculation about a strategic distancing.
- The DISY-DIKO Axis: Rumours of a “new chessboard” suggest a potential cooperation between the two largest centre-right parties. This alliance would aim not just for legislative control, but for the House Presidency and a joint path to 2028.
New Players and the “Anti-Systemic” Surge
The traditional parties face unprecedented pressure from new political entities that are already disrupting polling data:
- “Alma” (The Leap): Led by former Auditor General Odysseas Michaelides, this movement threatens to displace traditional centrist parties.
- “Amesi Demokratia” (Direct Democracy): MEP Fidias Panayiotou is leveraging his massive social media reach to establish a party that some polls suggest could challenge for 3rd or 4th place.
- Other Contenders: New parties, such as Christoforos Tornaritis’s “Sikou Pano” and the Green Party, as well as the first parliamentary test for VOLT, contribute to the fragmentation.
The Battle for the House Presidency
A significant change is being discussed in the House Rules Committee regarding the election of the House President:
- Proposed Change: A two-round system.
- Impact: Without pre-arranged alliances, the final round would likely be a head-to-head between the two largest parties (e.g., DISY vs. AKEL).
- The “Irene Factor”: MP Irene Charalambidou is expected to join Michaelides’s Alma. Her popularity could make her a formidable candidate for House President, potentially forcing AKEL into a difficult tactical dilemma.
Projections for the 2026 Parliament
President Christodoulides has voiced his desire for a centre-right majority. However, the numbers tell a challenging story:
| Party / Bloc | Current Seats | Polling Trend |
| DISY | 17 | Downward (targeting ~24%) |
| DIKO | 9 | Downward (facing pressure from Alma) |
| ELAM | 4 | Upward (projected 14-15%) |
| AKEL | 15 | Stable (targeting >22%) |
The “Sovereign” Right: ELAM as Kingmaker
ELAM is emerging as a potential “regulator” in the new Parliament. Polls place them firmly in 3rd place, potentially doubling their parliamentary strength. Despite their growth, they remain an unpredictable factor for the government, frequently voting against key administration bills.
The Long Road to 2028
The shadow of the Presidential Palace looms over every parliamentary move. Potential scenarios for the 2028 race include:
- Nikos Christodoulides: Seeking re-election, likely with support from remaining centrist elements.
- The DISY-DIKO Candidate: A joint nominee (potentially Annita Demetriou, Nicolas Papadopoulos, or Constantinos Yiorkadjis).
- Averof Neofytou: Should DISY’s leadership bypass its base for a joint candidate, Neofytou may run as an independent “institutional” candidate.
- Odysseas Michaelides: Expected to run on a platform of transparency and reform.
- AKEL: Likely to follow the “Mavroyiannis model,” supporting a widely-accepted independent personality.