Nicosia was initially satisfied with the selection of Johannes Hahn as the European Union’s Special Envoy, as he possesses all the necessary attributes—stemming from his position and his experience as a former Commissioner—to significantly contribute to the desired goal: progress in the EU-Turkey axis and the Cyprus issue. From his meetings in Nicosia, his interlocutors retain the message that the European Union can not only contribute to the progress of the Cyprus peace process but also offer all the necessary safeguards, ensuring that any solution found remains within the framework set by the EU itself.
In the time since his first visit to the island at the beginning of his appointment, Johannes Hahn has moved in many directions, sounding out those involved and directly interested in the Cyprus issue. He primarily aimed to record positions and intentions regarding both the efforts on the Cyprus issue and EU-Turkey relations.
His interlocutors were not only in Brussels; he also reached out to the British, while maintaining communication channels with Ankara to discuss the entire package. Johannes Hahn served as the Commissioner for Enlargement, a position that allowed him to be in continuous contact with many people in Ankara.
The Assessment: There is a Momentum
From a series of contacts, Hahn noted during his talks in Cyprus that he believes a momentum exists due to Turkey’s renewed interest in progressing its relations with the European Union. This momentum, provided by EU-Turkey relations, can, in his assessment, contribute to the effort being made on the Cyprus issue.
He is perfectly familiar with EU-Turkey relations and can, therefore, make his own moves to achieve a mutually beneficial result. After he met with President Christodoulides, he stated that they agree that “now is the time to achieve results,” while simultaneously conveying that “everyone must work hard for this, but it is achievable. Where there is a will, there is a result.”
According to our information, he stressed to his interlocutors that the key objective right now is the resumption of negotiations.
At Some Point, There Will Be No Other Option
Johannes Hahn’s presence on the island brought back into discussion the issue of the European Union’s presence at the talks. An involvement that was evident up until the negotiations in Crans-Montana. Subsequently, given that negotiations were not taking place, the EU moved more to the periphery of meetings without having a substantive role or involvement.
To the question of whether the EU will be at the negotiation table, Brussels communicates that “at some point, there will be no other option but for the Union to be involved.”
When leaving the Presidential Palace, he was asked about the EU’s participation in the talks. He stated that sitting at the table is not the highest priority issue because “any kind of solution can only be achieved with the participation of the EU. I am trying to work hard for this. I am the EU Special Envoy, but of course, the goal is to find a good compromise that is in the interest of the citizens of Cyprus, so that added value is created for ordinary citizens and they have even better prospects for living conditions in all parts of the island.”
Step-by-Step Effort and Interconnection
Until the resumption of talks is achieved, the EU envoy agrees that the effort should be step-by-step: steps should be taken on EU-Turkey relations in parallel with steps on the Cyprus issue. He also sees that this interconnection of the two exists, which can ultimately be catalytic in both directions.
Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) Are Good, But Not a Solution
The European Union has long played an additional role, contributing through policies and decisions to improving the climate between the two communities. It is one of the key players in promoting Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs). Both Hahn and other European officials understand the importance of CBMs, but they always stress that these do not and cannot constitute the form of a solution to the problem.
The EU’s involvement in CBMs largely serves to establish the role the European Union plays before a solution is found, and the role it can play during the negotiation of the solution.
In the context of the EU’s involvement, Johannes Hahn met with Charalambos Prountzos and Mehmet Haranci, with whom he discussed issues concerning the cooperation of the “local authorities.” The Turkish Cypriot “mayor” stated that during the meeting with Hahn, he referred mainly to financial aid for the Turkish Cypriots.
Nicosia’s View
Minister of European Affairs, Marilena Raouna, was also present at the meeting between President Christodoulides and Johannes Hahn. In her statements immediately afterwards, she explained that the EU has the tools regarding EU-Turkey relations, noting that any solution to the Cyprus problem, always based on the agreed framework, must also be consistent with the acquis communautaire, European law, and the principles and values of the European Union.
She recalled that during the previous round of negotiations, the EU’s presence “had an extremely positive impact on achieving progress.” When asked if the EU could participate in the informal expanded meeting on the Cyprus issue, Ms Raouna said that “the negotiations are under the auspices of the United Nations, and this is extremely important for our side as well, because the basis for the solution of the Cyprus problem and the relevant resolutions lies with the United Nations. The European Union comes to support and strengthen the efforts of the United Nations, and I think the answer to your question was given by Mr Hahn himself in his statements: there can be no solution to the Cyprus issue without the involvement of the European Union.”
Party Leaders Also Record Interest
The EU Envoy did not limit himself to the leaders of the two communities but also met with party leaders to record the general picture. Among those he met were the leaders of the two largest parties.
Annita Demetriou spoke of a “substantive and productive discussion with Mr Johannes Hahn about the next steps on the Cyprus issue.” The President of DISY stated that the common expectation for real progress was confirmed, which should lead “to negotiations towards a just and definitive solution.”
Stefanos Stefanou noted that “the European Union is interested and wants to break the deadlock and continue the negotiations, and has expressed its position to help the efforts to resolve the Cyprus issue.” As the AKEL General Secretary stated, during the meeting, views were exchanged on various issues that need to be addressed, and they agreed to maintain and continue contact and discussion, as it is very useful for everyone to know how different issues are being approached, in view of the mobility that has been created on the Cyprus issue.
Turkey Plays Strong NATO Cards
Ankara is bringing the revitalisation of its relations with the European Union back onto the agenda. The government in Nicosia is watching this development with particular interest, as it aligns with its own approach for parallel steps in EU-Turkey relations and the Cyprus issue.
President Christodoulides made sure to convey this message in person, directly to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Hakan Fidan during private meetings he had with them. However, it is evident that Ankara does not yet seem ready to make moves of direct cooperation with the Republic of Cyprus and appears to be trying to bypass it.
A characteristic example is the European Union’s SAFE programme, from which Turkey failed to submit a proposal in time and was left out. Still, it is trying by all means to bypass the decisions taken by the EU. It is using its strong NATO cards and its importance as a member state of the alliance in an attempt to secure access to the European programme, while simultaneously bypassing the opposition of EU member states and the decisions collectively taken by the Union itself.
The axis of Germany, Italy, and Spain appears to be supportive of Turkey for two main reasons: a) the strengthening of bilateral cooperation in the defence industry sector, and b) due to the new threats from Russia against NATO.
Ankara, for its part, is trying to exploit this momentum to bypass the decisions taken at the EU level for the sake of its own defence industry. At the same time, it is fully exploiting the fact that it is in a position to offer a large number of soldiers compared to other NATO member states.
Ankara believes that Turkey is as important to the EU as it is to NATO, and therefore holds the view that it should receive the same favourable treatment from both. It believes that EU-Turkey relations should be determined by Turkey’s importance in the field of European security and not by other criteria. This is why it reacts when faced with positions, such as those expressed by Cyprus, that are related to the principles of the EU itself.