Food inflation slows down, Red Sea attacks foreshadow new price hikes

It took 12 months for some de-escalation of food inflation to begin, which continues at a slow and distressing pace for thousands of households.

Moreover, the food index continues to outpace overall inflation.

December, a month associated with increased food consumption, witnessed a rise in the food price index compared to November.

According to data from the Statistical Service released yesterday, the food index increased by 3.2% in December, compared to a rise of 12.2% in 2022 and a decrease of 0.3% in 2021 (compared to 2020). In November 2023, the food price index was 2.2%, and in October, it was 5.1%.

The moderation in fuel and electricity prices in December, compared to a year earlier, appears to be the most significant factor in slowing down overall inflation, marking a notable deceleration to 1.6%, from 7.9% in 2022 and 4.8% in 2021 (compared to 2020).

For the period of January to December 2023, the consumer price index increased by 3.5%, compared to the corresponding period last year.

Business circles are already expressing concerns that the obstruction of maritime trade through the Red Sea by the Houthis could lead to increased costs in product imports.

Inflation is expected to see a new rise due to the problems caused by Houthi rebels’ actions in the Red Sea and the imposition of higher fees on ships carrying cargo containers forced to bypass the Suez Canal, incurring significant additional costs.

Statistics show that the price of oil decreased by 11.3% in December, compared to an increase of 18.2% in 2022, while gasoline prices decreased by 6.2%, compared to an increase of 9.7% in December 2022. The price of electricity increased slightly by 0.2%, compared to an increase of 32.7% in 2022 and 30.9% in 2021.

Prices for several basic food items declined, while others experienced a slight increase, with significant hikes in some categories.

The price of bread decreased by 4.3% in December, compared to an increase of 15.6% in 2022. The price of rice increased by 14.1% in December, while the price of lamb and goat meat increased by 14.3% compared to a 20% increase in 2022. The price of preserved milk increased by 15% in December, compared to a 14.1% increase in 2022 (a category that falls under zero VAT from May 2023).

The price of olive oil showed a significant increase of 14.6% in December, compared to a 22.4% increase in 2022. Fruit prices increased by 16.8% in December compared to a decrease of 16.9% in 2022, and prices for fresh vegetables (excluding potatoes) increased by 8.1%.

The price of beef and veal increased marginally by 0.1% compared to an increase of 26.2% in 2022. The price of pork increased by 3.1%, compared to an increase of 18.9% in 2022.

Poultry prices decreased by 5.3% in December compared to an increase of 20.4% in 2022. The price in the category of milk, cheese, and eggs increased by 0.3% compared to an increase of 16.8% in 2022. Potato prices decreased by 9.6%, while in December 2022, they increased by 39.7%. The price of sugar decreased by 11% compared to an increase of 77.8% in 2022.

Houthi Red Sea attacks contributing to accelerated inflation rate