The fire in mountainous Limassol on 23 July 2025, caused by two discarded cigarette butts according to US experts, has triggered a political crisis beyond the environmental destruction it wrought.
The government was caught off-guard and demonstrated poor reflexes in providing answers, whilst the opposition showed reflexes for exploiting the disaster, hoping for long-term political benefit. The fire, which American experts determined was caused by two cigarettes found at the ignition point, not only brought destruction to the area but also provoked an unprecedented political crisis.
The ATF report came to confirm what had been stated by officials during the fire period regarding the facts – statements that had passed unnoticed at the time as all attention had turned towards political responsibilities and the issue of the absence of the Agriculture Ministry’s general director, who had previously been appointed coordinator for addressing similar crises.
Government caught off-guard as opposition exploits disaster
The government side was caught unprepared and showed it lacked good reflexes to provide answers, whilst the opposition demonstrated reflexes for exploiting the disaster, hoping for political benefit over time. At political level and more broadly, what prevailed was political punishment, so the entire effort turned towards political superiors. The “devouring” of ministers or all involved ministers was the basic demand of hours following the Limassol fire.
Throughout this period there was parallel questioning of everyone’s capabilities, starting from political superiors and extending to the lowest-ranking personnel of services involved in the effort to combat the destructive fire. No one accepted any reports from Cypriot service officials regarding events and particular challenges they faced at the given time.
The popular demand, as it was characterised, for resignations and removal of ministers brought to the forefront the issue of government reshuffling. Within the climate of those days, it was logical for resignation issues to arise, but simultaneously for pressure to turn towards the President of the Republic himself, since none of his ministers decided to facilitate him by submitting their resignation.
ATF experts face indirect questioning over capabilities
ATF (Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms and Explosives) experts were indirectly questioned by certain circles (political and others) in Nicosia, attempting to promote a narrative that they were unfamiliar with such fires. This narrative was rejected through the service’s own actions, but in this case it was judged that it could contribute to the general narrative of those days that primarily targeted political responsibilities.
The July destructive fire, whilst it could have facilitated President Christodoulides’ handling by moving in the spirit of the times and demanding ministerial resignations, ultimately appears to have complicated his handling and overturned his initial plans. It was not considered coincidental that his approach during the two Cabinet meetings following the mountainous Limassol fire was entirely different.
In the first session, the atmosphere was visibly cold with the “threat of dismissals” hanging over some ministers’ heads. Conversely, in the immediately following session, the President ensured he conveyed the message to his ministers that what mattered was implementing everything decided for addressing the destructive fire’s consequences. This move brought relative calm to the ministerial level.
Presidential approach shifts between cabinet meetings
The ATF report factor will play its own role regarding developments in the government camp and will be included in the presidential evaluation scale of his ministers. The report’s content will either rekindle the reshuffle issue or achieve temporary resolution, because from the little that emerged from the western wing presidential office, what appears to exist in President Christodoulides’ intentions is to proceed with changes when no one expects them.
It was not coincidental that the “Clerides formula” was used as an example to demonstrate: a) that the President’s actions would not occur under pressure and demands from others to remove ministers and proceed with reshuffles, b) changes would happen when no one expects them or when the issue has left the public discussion framework.
This approach was not coincidental, as the previous similar situation two years ago led to moves which, instead of facilitating, trapped the President in his handling by even setting a timeframe for implementing changes.
Opposition parties compete in harsh criticism
In hours following and days that followed, the two opposition components – DISY and AKEL – found themselves on the same side and competed over which of the two parties would use heavier characterisations against the government. There was an unprecedented rally of statements from both parties in passion and intensity, to such a degree that they refused to hear opposing views or mainly about events surrounding the destructive fire.
The hastily convened parliamentary committees, to which approximately 80 people were invited to speak, resembled more a “people’s court” established with specific intent rather than parliamentary oversight of events. If parliamentary oversight had been the intention, certainly the joint session of three committees would have occurred at a later stage based on reports, not immediately before investigations were even completed.
In this case, the opposition judged it had been given a golden opportunity to gain the upper hand and overturn its own problematic image. Polls preceding the destructive fire showed both major opposition parties recording historic lows among the electorate. An unsuccessful attempt was also made – by certain sides – to hide the low percentages behind the President’s low popularity.
Detailed ATF findings reveal fire’s origin and spread
US experts conducted systematic research following established methodology. Researchers calculated fire expansion speed using two different methods: first calculation showed 60 metres per minute, whilst the second calculation showed 63 metres per minute.
The methodology included: collecting testimonies from eyewitnesses and firefighters, identifying combustion indicators – long and micro-indicators, analysing fire spread patterns, and correlating with meteorological data.
After detailed analysis, the ignition point was identified with impressive accuracy at the edge of the Malia-Arsos road pavement, covering a 30cm × 30cm area. The fire spread north and south due to wind changes.
Systematic examination of the ignition area revealed one partially burnt cigarette and one fully burnt cigarette, with thermal alterations confirming causality. The evidence was collected and recorded by ATF researchers and handed to Cypriot authorities for further analysis, forming the basis for legal proceedings to follow.
Environmental and climatic factors amplified destruction
The report emphasised critical destruction factors: human factor through careless cigarette disposal, environmental conditions showing 100% ignition probability, meteorological phenomena combining high temperature, low humidity and strong winds, and topography favourable for multi-directional spread.
Future challenges highlighted in the report show fire risk in Cyprus increasing due to: Mediterranean climate with prolonged dry summers, climate change worsening conditions, density and moisture of combustible vegetation, and steep topography accelerating spread.
Beyond the report, what appears to be proceeding in the immediate next period is cooperation between Cypriot authorities and ATF for training Cypriots in conducting investigations for all types of fires. The burden for broader political and legal measures that will strengthen both prevention and response will fall on the shoulders of the entire political system, both governing and opposition parties.
Opposition faces test
The immediately following period is expected to see new polls which are considered important from many perspectives. One element that will emerge from these polls is the impact on opposition parties from the July destructive fires issue in mountainous Limassol.
According to what followed the fires and the general climate in society, the opposition should begin recovering in public opinion, because this was the objective of the intensity and passion displayed regarding the fires.
However, there is also a very large possibility that polls will reveal citizens and voters bypassing the two major traditional parties and moving toward newly-emerged formations. If this occurs, it would constitute a significant blow to both Democratic Rally and AKEL, as it would show the failure of the strategy they followed in the recent period.
This strategy aimed to convince citizens and the electorate that these two parties represent the future and prospect and should be trusted. Their strategy was targeted toward one direction only – the government – and not those areas that appear to continuously fish away their voters.
The strategy they followed was exclusively focused on one direction – against the government – rather than addressing those areas that appear to be continuously attracting their voters away from them.
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