The Turkish Cypriot leadership election on 19 October could be a decisive factor for future Cyprus settlement efforts.
UN officials and international actors involved in Cyprus peace processes assess that substantive discussions can resume after October’s election, noting the difficulty of meaningful dialogue during intense pre-election periods.
The international approach reflects assessments about who will be the next Turkish Cypriot leader. The leadership role carries significance and influences efforts to restart negotiations. Foreign officials’ strategy may relate to evaluations that circumstances could improve with a change in leadership compared to the hard-line Ersin Tatar, potentially creating enhanced prospects for renewed Cyprus talks.
Two competing visions
The two candidates, Tufan Erhurman and Ersin Tatar, present contrasting visions regarding Cyprus and negotiation prospects before Turkish Cypriot voters and international actors. Turkey remains the fundamental factor with decisive influence in any scenario.
Based on pre-election statements: Tufan Erhurman of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) promotes an approach based on “loose federation” and dialogue, while Ersin Tatar adopts fundamentally different logic centred on a “two-state solution” and sovereign equality.
Erhurman’s loose federation and European perspective
Erhurman presents a complex approach targeting creation of a “strong, internationally acceptable solution” culminating in European Union membership. His proposed model relies on loose federation with two equal founding states, where constituent states maintain strong competencies while cooperating on critical common interest areas.
He attempts to balance two “autonomous communities” with decisions in strategic sectors including energy, maritime zones, trade routes and security.
Erhurman establishes specific negotiation preconditions, connecting them to past experiences as perceived by the Turkish Cypriot community. Political equality confirmation through rotating presidency and ensuring no decisions occur without Turkish Cypriot consent represents fundamental elements of his proposal.
His demand for specific timetables aims to avoid past inconclusive multi-year negotiations. He supports maintaining progress achieved on property issues and requires guarantees against negotiation abandonment by Greek Cypriot leadership.
Tatar’s two-state solution and sovereign equality
Tatar implemented radical changes to Turkish Cypriot Cyprus approaches upon assuming leadership, promoting “solution based on two-state principle” and ending traditional Turkish Cypriot federal solution approaches.
His categorical position that “the federation issue is definitively closed” signalled rupture with all predecessors’ traditional approaches, including Rauf Denktash. Tatar’s logic relies on “two separate states, two separate peoples” living separately for 51 years – an approach potentially reflecting ground realities developed over five decades, though questions exist regarding potential international acceptance.
Security and Turkish guarantees receive absolute priority in Tatar’s philosophy. “Effective and real guarantee of motherland Turkey” and “Turkish Armed Forces presence” constitute non-negotiable elements. His view that “peace has prevailed on the island since 1974” presents Turkish military presence as a stability factor.
Fundamental differences and challenges
The October candidates demonstrate fundamental differences and approaches. Erhurman seeks European integration through federal solutions via negotiations, while Tatar seeks recognition of existing conditions and “two states” as basis for future developments.
Different Turkey perceptions exist between candidates. Both acknowledge Ankara’s significance, but Erhurman views cooperation as means for achieving internationally acceptable solutions, while Tatar considers it absolute guarantee for survival and security.
Regarding Greek Cypriot properties in occupied areas, Erhurman adopts balanced positions recognising legal aspects while rejecting politicisation. He considers prosecution “unacceptable” while Cyprus remains unresolved, indirectly indicating acceptance of illegal developments in occupied territories.
Comparing three Cyprus positions
Greek Cypriot positions require inclusion in the overall equation. President Christodoulides continues supporting federal solutions based on bi-zonal, bi-communal federation with political equality – positions fully compatible with UN decisions and established international positions.
Tatar categorically closed the discussion on a federal solution, insisting on a “two-state solution” involving the recognition of two independent, sovereign states. This position faces significant international obstacles, requiring fundamental changes to established international positions.
Erhurman attempts positioning between the two approaches, promoting “loose federation” with European perspective. This approach maintains federal frameworks while offering greater flexibility and adaptation possibilities addressing specific Turkish Cypriot security and autonomy concerns.
Christodoulides’ and Erhurman’s positions on federal solutions appear compatible with international references and UN decisions, despite variations regarding federation “looseness” degrees. Conversely, Tatar’s two-state position requires radical changes to positions established over decades by the international community.
Future Cyprus steps will be determined immediately after the “elections” in the occupied north based on three considerations: Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot positions, plus Turkey’s approach to managing the elections and the Cyprus problem.
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