Cyprus will have a climate similar to Cairo by around 2055, with frequent 40-degree temperatures extending well beyond summer, as this year’s scorching November signals the end of autumn as we know it, meteorologists warned.
The island is overheating by 0.4 to 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade since 1981, whilst cooling demand is projected to surge 153% by the end of the century. From January to November this year, 219 out of 328 days — 67% — were warmer than normal.
“From this year’s November we are getting a taste earlier than we expected of what was supposed to happen after the middle towards the end of the century. To experience November like September,” Dr Panos Hadjinicolaou, professor at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C) of the Cyprus Institute, told philenews.
This November showed extreme deviations reaching up to 8 degrees Celsius above normal at the Athalassa station in Nicosia — unprecedented in 43 years of measurements. On 21 November alone, temperatures hit 30 degrees, almost 10 units above normal.
November and March have become the months with the greatest warming in 2001-2024 compared with 1983-2000, rising roughly 2 degrees Celsius, according to Hadjinicolaou.
Vanishing rainfall
Rainfall is becoming scarce and arriving in rarer but more destructive episodes. Last year, Cyprus received only 313 millimetres of rain — 1.3 billion tonnes less water than the 30-year average.
“Instead of having mild rains, we have extreme rains with very large volumes of water, very local in nature over a short period of time,” said Kleanthis Nicolaides, former director of the Meteorological Service. Cyprus no longer gets early autumn rains covering the whole island for a day or two, he added.
Average rainfall has plummeted from 533 millimetres in 1941-1970 to 450 millimetres in 1991-2020 — a drop of 80 millimetres. Each millimetre of rain across Cyprus equals 9.5 million tonnes of water, meaning the island is losing almost 1 billion tonnes annually.
Autumn rainfall has decreased by 5 to 10 millimetres per decade since 1981, and rainfall is expected to fall by up to 20% by mid to late century compared with the early 20th century.
The prolonged lack of rain may have contributed to November’s extreme heat, Hadjinicolaou noted. When soil contains moisture, it evaporates and cools the atmosphere — but dry soil amplifies warming.
Future projections paint bleak picture
A Cyprus Institute study updated in 2024-2025 projects dramatic changes ahead. Summer days exceeding 35 degrees will multiply, whilst cooling needs will more than double from 442 to 1,116 degree-days by century’s end. Heating requirements will be cut in half.
“By around mid-century, roughly 2055, the country will have Cairo’s climate. That is, very frequently 40-degree temperatures, which will extend beyond July and August,” Nicolaides said.
Current temperatures are already 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above reference levels, with winters growing warmer across the island.
The changing climate is also altering weather patterns, Hadjinicolaou said. “Extreme values are easily recorded both upwards and downwards. We will have more fluctuations.”
Ecosystem already showing strain
Nature is responding to the disrupted seasons. Phileleftheros recently reported a snake found on a path when it should be in winter dormancy. Mulberry trees at high altitudes have not shed their leaves, and rose bushes continue flowering into late autumn.
Visible consequences are expected across plant and animal kingdoms, with possible extinctions of endemic species, Hadjinicolaou warned.
Health and economic toll
Rising temperatures mean heat stress for citizens and increased deaths. The economic costs will be substantial across all sectors affected by climate change, experts said.
“Of course, all sectors translate into money in the end,” Hadjinicolaou said.
Defensive measures urged
Authorities must take defensive action, Hadjinicolaou stressed, including improved early warning systems and sector-specific measures such as smart technologies to warn farmers about moisture reduction.
“We want early warning and preparation. Adaptation is very important,” he said.
Nicolaides sees only one solution to replenish underground aquifers, fill dams, irrigate crops and forests, and avoid expensive desalinated water: enhancing rainfall through cloud seeding.
Read more: