Hungary’s Tisza Party is projected to win 125 mandates in the country’s 199-seat parliament, according to partial results with 14.7% of votes counted.
Two surveys published after polling stations closed pointed to a historic defeat for veteran Prime Minister Viktor Orban after 16 years in power, wire reports say.
The surveys, the last conducted before voting started and published after polling closed on Sunday, showed Tisza leader Peter Magyar’s centre-right party winning 55 to 57% support, ahead of Orban’s nationalist Fidesz party. Pollster Median projected Tisza could win 135 seats; pollster 21 Research Centre put the figure at 132. There are no exit polls for Sunday’s election.
“We have seen the fresh polls and based on the turnout data and information that we received we are optimistic,” Magyar told a briefing. Orban’s chief of staff Gergely Gulyas, however, said Fidesz was confident of winning a majority after what he described as a democratic vote.
Voter turnout reached 74.23% as of 15:00 GMT, up sharply from 62.92% at the same point in the 2022 election, with long queues reported outside voting stations in Budapest. Pollsters had predicted a record turnout. Official results are due later on Sunday evening.
Orban, 62, has governed Hungary for 16 years, building what he describes as an “illiberal democracy” that has been seen as a model by right-wing movements across the West, including US President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. Many Hungarians have grown weary of three years of economic stagnation and soaring living costs, as well as reports of oligarchs close to the government accumulating wealth. Tisza’s Magyar has positioned himself to capitalise on that frustration.
If the survey findings prove accurate, Orban’s defeat would have significant implications beyond Hungary. It would likely end Hungary’s adversarial role inside the EU, potentially opening the way for a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine that Orban had blocked, and the eventual release of EU funds suspended over what Brussels described as Orban’s erosion of democratic standards. An Orban exit would also deprive Russian President Vladimir Putin of his main ally within the EU.
A Tisza victory could open the way for reforms aimed at combating corruption and restoring the independence of the judiciary, though the extent of such reforms will depend on whether the party can secure the two-thirds constitutional majority needed to reverse much of Orban’s legislative legacy.
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