President Trump is continuing to suggest potential military action against Cuba, appearing emboldened by his administration’s recent interventions in Venezuela and Iran.
Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. military in January, Trump warned that he had turned his sights toward Havana. At a news conference regarding the raid on 3 January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the Cuban regime should be “concerned.”
The President’s rhetoric has escalated further since the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S. strikes in February. On 16 March, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he believed he would have “the honor of taking Cuba.”
“Taking Cuba in some form, yeah,” he said. “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it — I think I could do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth.” On Sunday, speaking aboard Air Force One, he added: “Cuba’s going to be next.”
Pressure for Regime Change
Secretary Rubio has been more explicit regarding the administration’s objectives. In January congressional testimony, he stated, “we would love to see the regime there change,” calling it a “great benefit” to the U.S. By 17 March, Rubio argued that the Cuban political system is incapable of fixing its failing economy. “So, they have to get new people in charge,” he said.
On Tuesday, Rubio told Fox News that the administration would “have more news on that fairly soon,” reiterating that economic recovery is impossible without changing the system of government.
However, regional experts largely view these military threats as bluster. They suggest that forcing the resignation of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel through economic collapse and sanctions is a more likely scenario.
“I think there are a number of factions within the administration where some would be happy to do a deal with most of the existing Cuban government if it gave greater access to businesses,” Paul Hare, former British ambassador to Cuba, told CBS News. “The other faction, I think, is insisting on a complete regime change.”
The Economic Stranglehold
The administration is currently attempting to choke the island’s economy via an oil blockade. Experts say this has pushed Cuba to its most dire state since the collapse of the Soviet Union. While the two governments have held talks, President Díaz-Canel noted earlier this month that they are “still far from an agreement.”
Cuba’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, told NBC that while his nation does not view U.S. military action as “probable,” its military is “prepared” for aggression. He added that regime change is “absolutely” off the table.
Christopher Hernandez-Roy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argued that “regime management” is the only realistic option, noting that Cuba’s 70-year power structure is more expert at suppressing dissent than the previous administration in Venezuela.
Some diplomats believe Trump views Cuba primarily as a business opportunity. Lawrence Gumbiner, who led the U.S. Embassy in Havana during Trump’s first term, said the President sees the island as “virgin territory” for U.S. tourism, construction, and transportation sectors.
“It’s important to realize that Trump, he does not want to do nation building,” Gumbiner said, noting that piecemeal economic changes are easier than redoing the nation in a democratic model.
Under this mounting pressure, the Cuban government recently announced it would allow Cuban nationals living abroad to invest in companies on the island—a significant shift for the Communist-ruled state. In a humanitarian gesture this week, the U.S. allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach the island. “They have to survive,” Trump said on Sunday.
Information taken from CBS News.