The continuation of the war in the region is fuelling nightmarish scenarios that concern the whole world, while it is clear that the geopolitical landscape is changing dramatically. Balances are shifting and new needs are emerging. In this evolving field, the Republic of Cyprus also has a place, owing both to its geographical proximity and to its status as a member state of the European Union. At the same time, occupied Turkey is also seeking, and indeed pursuing, a leading role.
The war under way is shaping — and to some extent imposing — new realities, which appear likely to remain in force even after the military clashes end.
For Cyprus in particular, these realities are taking shape, among other things, as follows:
First, in the field of security, broader new realities are being created, and this concerns Cyprus too. Especially after the start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the crash of the drone at the British Base in Akrotiri, the Republic of Cyprus, through the initiatives it developed, has been strengthened in the field of security. The arrival of supporting forces in the maritime area around Cyprus is regarded by Nicosia as an additional guarantee for our country. The countries that responded to the President’s call — namely Greece, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands — are expected to do so again. And this strengthens the country’s security, in combination with Nicosia’s own moves in the defence sector. At the same time, their presence may also be viewed from another angle. It is clear that their relationship with the Republic of Cyprus gives them the possibility of being present in the region and of having a role.
At the same time, developments, and Nicosia’s moves to strengthen its defence on a bilateral level, have opened the discussion on a collective response by the European Union through Article 42(7), which until now has remained theoretical and without implementation clauses. The discussion being set in motion, on Nicosia’s initiative, will make European solidarity concrete in practice. In other words, when a member state in danger will be supported, and how.
This issue has already entered a process of discussion and will be raised in April at the informal meeting of the European Council, which will be hosted in Cyprus.
Second, does Cyprus have a role in what is happening in our region? It does have a role, and it is exercising it. At present it is also holding the rotating presidency of the European Union, and this is an additional tool in the hands of the Republic of Cyprus. It is important that Nicosia has relations with all the states of the region, and this allows it to maintain channels of communication and also to mediate. It is noted that the Secretary-General of the United Nations, during his meeting with the President of the Republic, Nikos Christodoulides, last Wednesday in Brussels, also referred to Cyprus’s role in the region. He recognised the role of the Republic of Cyprus in terms of the initiatives it is undertaking and appeared to be informed. Antonio Guterres referred specifically to the initiative involving Lebanon, having been informed of it by the country’s President, Joseph Aoun. He also mentioned this after his meeting with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in relation to the provision of €100 million by the European Union to Lebanon. Aid that was given following an initiative by Nicosia. At the same time, as the President of the Republic said, Nicosia is mediating between Lebanon and Israel to defuse tensions and stop the military clashes. In this context, a meeting between the two sides may be hosted on the island. The Cypriot side, because of the relations it has with both countries, has undertaken to bring Lebanon and Israel closer so that they can discuss their differences and de-escalate the tension. Discussions on this matter are continuing.
Nicosia, as an informed source said, is making many backstage moves and is operating quietly where and when necessary.
Third, developments could also affect the Cyprus issue in terms of the role and position that Cyprus will have in the processes in the region the day after an agreement. That is to say, after a solution is achieved. It is clear that none of the countries that responded to Nicosia’s appeal, nor others that have interests in the region, would want one state, Cyprus, to determine its stance on matters concerning the region through Ankara. And that would only happen if an agreement gave Turkey the ability to control the island.
Turkey is moving fast
On the opposite side, Ankara is seeking a role, and indeed a leading one. It is, however, clear that Ankara cannot mediate between Iran and the US-Israeli side, as Tel Aviv does not accept such a role. In other words, it cannot act as a mediator as it did in the case of Ukraine. As a result, it is trying to wedge itself between Iran and the Arab states so that they can find common ground. It is approaching those countries that have been hit by Iranian missiles, while also keeping an open channel of communication with Tehran. It is noted that last Wednesday (18 March 2026), the Foreign Ministers’ Summit of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the UAE took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The war in Iran was on the agenda. Given that Turkey too was hit by Iranian missiles, as were Gulf countries, as well as Jordan and Azerbaijan, a statement of condemnation was issued. At the same time, Hakan Fidan, beyond the joint statement, also turned against Israel in his own remarks.
It is clear that amid military conflict in the region, there is an intense effort to redistribute power, a matter that concerns above all the major players and the wider assumption of initiatives. It is a game of dominance, a game of power and alliances.
Oil via pipeline through Turkey
Turkey’s gain from the developments is the start of oil transport from Iraq to Adana. According to the Turkish newspaper Milliyet, “oil transport from Iraq, which had stopped after the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has resumed through the Kerküt-Ceyhan pipeline. This pipeline will export oil from Northern Iraq through the port of Ceyhan in Adana. The government of Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) have reached an agreement to resume oil exports to the energy hub on the Mediterranean coast, with a target of exporting 250,000 barrels of oil.” As for the capabilities that exist, the Turkish newspaper refers to statements by Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayarktar, in July 2025, in which he said that, if operating at full capacity, this pipeline has commercial potential of 40 billion US dollars.
It is clear that the strikes by Israel and Iran on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf are creating new realities. And even after the war ends, time will be needed for the restoration of that infrastructure.
The ball is now rolling and, after the end of the war, a dialogue will begin between the Republic of Cyprus and Britain on the status of the Bases. This should be regarded as a given. What happened with the drone crash at the Akrotiri Base, and London’s inability to manage the circumstances that arose, inevitably opens the discussion. Mainly because the British handling of the matter created insecurity and left exposed the residents whose communities are considered part of the Base areas. By opening the matter, Nicosia is not seeking a rupture, but a solution. After all, it is clear that the Bases are a colonial remnant, and this runs contrary to international law. This issue will be discussed bilaterally and does not concern third parties, as the Republic of Cyprus is a sovereign state. Those who invoke either the Cyprus issue or the 1960 Agreements are obviously looking for ways to prevent any discussion from starting. The Agreements established the state. This state, which has functioned ever since (albeit with acknowledged problems because of Turkey’s occupation of territory), can discuss matters without guardians.
Nikolas Ioannides (Maritime Claims and Boundary Delimitation: Tensions and Trends in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, 2021) states that, “taking into account the statements of the International Court of Justice, in the Advisory Opinion on the Chagos Archipelago, it can be argued that the United Kingdom has, mutatis mutandis, an obligation to terminate the current legal regime of the SBAs and, at the very least, to renegotiate the terms of its presence in Cyprus with the authorities of the Republic of Cyprus with a view to reaching an agreement on transforming the legal regime governing the SBAs. In general terms, the similarity and the analogies between the cases of Mauritius and Cyprus are striking as regards the conduct of the United Kingdom.”
It is noted that the British newspaper The Guardian, referring to the paragraph on the Bases included in the European Council conclusions, said that it “constitutes a victory for Cyprus as this wording had not appeared in previous drafts”. Namely, that “the European Council recognises Cyprus’s intention to begin discussion with the United Kingdom regarding the British Bases in Cyprus and declares itself ready to provide assistance where necessary”.
The London newspaper, in a clearly critical tone towards the British government, notes that the EU’s easternmost member state, which is a 20-minute flight from Lebanon, did not feel that it had been adequately supported by the United Kingdom. It recalls that the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon left Portsmouth for the eastern Mediterranean last week, but critics said the United Kingdom should have had a warship in the area as soon as it became clear that Donald Trump had been preparing for a possible attack on Iran since late January. France, the newspaper says, was among the first nations to respond to Cyprus’s request for military assistance, deploying air defence systems, a frigate and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the area.