American President Donald Trump is playing Russian roulette, using pressure tactics against those who won’t align with his goals.
The international uncertainty emerging from the fluidity and upheaval of the global system is creating new realities that could very well affect all open international issues—including the Cyprus problem.
It’s clear that all discussions involving the American president are outside the box. This means he operates on the logic of imposing through force and outside the United Nations framework. These conditions naturally provoke anxiety and fear, particularly regarding the methods being adopted.
What could this mean for the Cyprus problem, which despite recent activity remains deadlocked? Obviously, at this stage, Cyprus isn’t on the White House’s radar. What is on their radar is the Republic of Cyprus in relation to Washington’s regional planning. Nicosia is attempting to leverage this recognition of its role and significance to strengthen its positions on the Cyprus issue through this upgraded status.
To strengthen its position so as to avoid any negative developments. The Cypriot side, keeping all this in mind, is operating very carefully with the Americans. However, in international politics—especially that practised by the White House occupant—nothing can be taken for granted. No one can predict with certainty how he’ll operate.
Keeping Turkey close
At the same time, President Trump, despite whatever reservations he may have, wants Turkey and Erdoğan close, knowing that Ankara is willing to do the dirty work. The US stance towards what’s happening to the Kurds in Syria could be a harbinger of what follows.
It’s obvious that Washington is betting on Turkey and the role it can play in the region as a second (or parallel) policeman, after Israel.
Turkey, however, may need to play a special role—for the US—if the crisis within NATO continues and escalates. This is an issue that may not be immediate, but could arise.
When the American president views Gaza, Greenland as prime filets and is ready to sacrifice Ukraine, anything can happen with any open international problem. Much will depend on circumstances and approach. In Cyprus’s case, what might happen?
Does it serve Washington to resolve the Cyprus problem now, closing an open wound and leveraging this in broader regional planning? This will depend on many other factors, including the United States’ priorities at this stage.
Would it be a solution with Turkey’s role and involvement the day after? This may not concern the US so much, but it concerns their other allies, like Israel. Tel Aviv, for its own geopolitical reasons, doesn’t want Turkish control of Cyprus through an agreement. It obviously wants to have its own say.
Greek-Turkish relations must also factor into the equation. Athens believes it has built strong communication channels with the US over time, but in this particular context that could mean a lot—or it might not.
The ‘Peace Council’
President Trump’s creation of the “Peace Council” aims to give his decisions an appearance of collectivity. Obviously, within the UN framework he would face certain institutional difficulties in advancing his policies. That’s why he wants to operate outside and beyond the international organisation.
European Union leaders concluded during Thursday evening’s discussion at the extraordinary European Council that the “Peace Council” is problematic and raises legal issues. At the same time, there are parameters that need clarification regarding both its operation and the implementation of its decisions.
Consequently, the majority trend forming among member states is to support the Gaza initiative if at all, which is also covered by Security Council resolution 2803.
At Davos, the impression was given that Donald Trump backed down on Greenland and on new tariffs. In reality, through his exaggerations about buying or militarily conquering Greenland, he secured the permanent US presence in the region.
Strengthening and upgrading the military presence as a first step. He didn’t need to try very hard, as the Europeans and NATO operated appeasingly towards him.
It’s clear that at this stage, Washington prioritises Gaza—they even presented plans for the Riviera at Davos—and obviously this investment requires regional stability to pay off economically as well. Simultaneously, he’s intervening in Ukraine, where he’s moving to close it as quickly as possible, maintaining an open line with the Kremlin.
Obviously, he wants to overturn the international system and create a different one on his own terms. Whatever is said about his behaviour—unfortunately—he’s not building policies until the end of his term but for the coming decades.
British balancing acts of constructive ambiguity, Russian references to bases, and the militarisation of the dead zone
Processes are underway in New York to finalise the text for the resolution to be submitted to the Security Council for renewal of the Force’s mandate.
From the discussions and from statements during the Security Council briefing by the UN Special Representative in Cyprus and UNFICYP head, Khassim Diagne, it’s evident that all the main players view prospects for Cyprus with cautious optimism, although no significant steps are expected until the end of Cyprus’s EU presidency.
The British, who traditionally draft the resolutions, are operating with a logic of maintaining balances to avoid reactions. The British, as is well known, have an arsenal of many ideas, with their familiar tactic of constructive ambiguity. When, for example, they refer to the Bi-zonal Bi-communal Federation, they speak of “a broad basis,” noting that all concerns and needs of both sides can be satisfied.
The Russian Federation’s positions are noteworthy. Moscow maintains its longstanding positions on Cyprus, which don’t appear to be affected by developments on other fronts (such as Ukraine). Like other countries, they highlight the choice of Tufan Erhürman in the position of occupation regime leader, whom they consider “willing.”
The Russians acknowledge difficulties in progressing on issues like opening new crossings, as well as the fact that there’s a lack of trust. Russia supports a solution based on resolutions and not outside the framework or the imposition of any agreement.
Moscow also references the British bases, which it considers a colonial remnant, noting that their presence makes achieving an agreement difficult. Countries like France and China steadfastly express the need to respect the resolutions. Beijing also raises the issue of the enclosed Varosha area.
Greece, a non-permanent Security Council member, also raised this issue, highlighting the Peacekeeping Force’s inability to prevent the occupying power’s actions. It criticised the United Nations for its report, primarily because it equates the occupying forces, which are attacking, with the National Guard, which is defending.
The United Nations’ perception is that there are “encouraging signs” on Cyprus as a result of the Christodoulides-Erhürman meeting in María Ángela Holguín’s presence on 11 December. The international organisation notes that for the first time since 2020, issues concerning the substance of the Cyprus problem were discussed.
They refer to the statement that the goal is achieving a Cyprus solution with political equality, as described in the relevant Security Council resolutions.
However, observing the discussions at negotiators’ level as well, they’re quick to note that we’re at the beginning and there’s still a way to go.
At UN headquarters, but mainly the organisation’s mission in Nicosia, they’re betting on discussing confidence-building measures, especially those that facilitate daily life. However, they acknowledge these cannot substitute for a political solution.
It’s clear, as a UN source noted, that based on current data it’s premature to announce a date for holding the informal five-party conference on Cyprus. The Secretary-General, whose term expires this year, doesn’t want a new failure, even if it’s not presented as such.
Consequently, António Guterres has given instructions for preparation to ensure there are chances of success. What does success mean? Advancing the resumption of negotiations.
Security Council member states that follow from afar what’s happening on Cyprus and are possibly briefed by the British and other well-wishers speak of militarisation of the buffer zone—largely equating the occupation army and the National Guard.
Regarding the buffer zone, the Greek Permanent Representative had to intervene to explain the history and how the area was formed.