Speculation over the reasons for resignation of Turkish Cypriot leader’s representative
The Turkish Cypriot leader’s special representative Ergun Olgun recently unexpectedly resigned, sparking speculation that he was no longer seen fit for the job by Turkey. However, there are conflicting arguments over whether he was seen too yielding for a Turkey that has been insisting on a two-state solution in Cyprus; or whether he was seen too hardline for a Turkey that is recently signalling a more constructive stance.
Ergun Olgun, the 80-year-old die-hard advocate of an independent Turkish Cypriot state and the constant right hand of all hardline leaders from the late Rauf Denktash to Dervish Eroglu to the current Ersin Tatar, cited old age and said he was retiring rather than resigning.
“I am 80 years old. I don’t know how many more healthy years I have left. I want to spend time with my family,” he told the media, denying rumours of any disagreements on the Cyprus issue with Tatar or Turkey.
His resignation came a month after he was harshly criticised by ultra-nationalist circles for disclosing at a panel at Famagusta’s Eastern Mediterranean University DAU, that the Turkish side had abandoned its condition that the unilaterally declared Turkish Cypriot state – the ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus TRNC’ – be recognised by the United Nations Security Council.
“We have right now passed beyond that link about a Security Council decision, and we have conveyed this to the Greek Cypriot side,” Olgun said at a panel on Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the Mediterranean. “We said…negotiations between the two sides can begin without that link, or condition… This is not something we made public, but we can say it in a closed setting… We are looking for ways to find alternative formulas.”
He was responding to former negotiator and leader of the People’s Party HP, Kudret Ozersay, who, at the same panel, criticised the Turkish side of setting the condition that the UN Security Council recognises the Turkish Cypriot state before starting any kind of negotiations. This condition was tabled by the Turkish side during an informal meeting with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Geneva in April 2021.
“Where did you find the right to abandon our national policy, which is to demand that the UN Security Council acknowledges our sovereign equality and equal international status?” asked ultra nationalist Sabahattin Ismail in his column in the daily Kibris after the recording of the panel was uploaded on YouTube. “Is Turkey and President Tatar aware of this?… What kind of an insanity is it to say one thing to the people and then compromise from the national policy behind closed doors?”
To ward off speculation that the special representative had left his post as a punishment for making this revelation or even this compromise, Tatar and Olgun gave a joint interview to the semi-official news agency TAK, constantly repeating they had no problems or disagreements. This only served to amplify the rumours. During the interview, the two also reiterated that the negotiations can only start with the acknowledgment of sovereign equality and equal international status.
“There were those, who were not comfortable with Ergun Olgun, and who even did not find him enough of a Turkish nationalist or pro-TRNC and kept attacking,” wrote journalist Serhat Incirli in the daily Yeniduzen. “And Ersin Tatar could protect Ergun Olgun. He didn’t.”
Other observers, however, underline that a small window of opportunity may have opened for Cyprus due to Ankara’s recent interest in reconciling with the European Union after the Turkish presidential elections and draw attention to the fact that Olgun’s resignation comes at a time of a seeming slight shift in Turkey’s position vis a vis the Cyprus problem.
In a recent statement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not only referenced the Annan Plan and expressed hope for a lasting and just peace in Cyprus, but he also spoke of a renewed rapprochement with the EU especially on visa-free travel and the customs union.
“We will not hesitate to take responsibility for the island of Cyprus to achieve a lasting and just peace,” said Erdogan following a cabinet meeting in Ankara. “We have shown our sincerity on this issue in every process up to now, including the Annan Plan, and we will [do it] again if necessary.”
Erdogan mentioned his meetings with world leaders including US President Joe Biden, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and French President Emmanuel Macron at the recent Vilnius Nato summit and said: “We have seen during these meetings that we have no problems with any country that cannot be solved. Provided that dialogue and diplomacy are given a chance, we believe that misunderstandings will be overcome, and disagreements will be solved.”
Shortly after President Erdogan, Turkish National Defence Minister Yasar Guler called for a fair and permanent solution to the Cyprus problem.
“The immediate solution of the Cyprus problem through securing the legitimate interests and security of Turkish Cypriots is one of the most important priorities of our country,” he said. “We have cannot afford to lose another 50 years on this. Our wish is that…a strong will is put forward for the peaceful, equal, and fair solution of the Cyprus problem, based on international law…”
Asked about a possible policy change by Turkey vis a vis Cyprus, Turkish Cypriot leader Tatar was in full denial.
“The policy that we are pursuing is the correct policy,” he told the media. “AKP [Justice and Development Party] and MHP [Nationalist Movement Party] are supporting this policy. There can be no turning back after this point. This is now an established policy.”
Underlining that the fact that elections in Turkey are over also provides for a greater room for manoeuvre. Fikri Toros, a deputy from the main opposition Republican Turkish Party CTP, says he expects some movement in the Cyprus issue as of autumn this year when the UN General Assembly will be held.
“I believe that the fact that Turkey has prioritised the revival of its relations with the EU and the US will open a new window of opportunity for the solution of the Cyprus problem,” says Toros.
Former negotiator Ozdil Nami agrees:
“Turkey had to keep its guard up… before the elections in Turkey. Turkey backtracking to this extent in the Cyprus issue was not rational. It was about internal politics. It was aimed at winning the elections. And that has happened.”
Nami added that Tatar would change his current hardline policy with just a phone call from Turkey.
It is not unprecedented for Turkish Cypriot negotiators or special representatives to suddenly change when there is a shift in Turkey’s Cyprus policy. In 2014, during Dervish Eroglu’s leadership, Turkish Cypriot hardline negotiator Osman Ertug was replaced with Kudret Ozersay. This was seen as an indication of Ankara’s willingness to keep the process alive and even bypass Eroglu following the joint statement of February 2014.
Days after his resignation, Olgun warned against a Greek Cypriot aim to extort concessions from Turkey by exploiting its possible desire to improve relations with Brussels and said it is impossible for Turkey to change its Cyprus policy.
The coming days will demonstrate the true reasons of Olgun’s departure as the person to replace him will bear the hints of the course Turkey will want to take in the Cyprus problem.